PREDICT (New Zealand)

The New Zealand PREDICT-1° equation (ethnicity, NZDep, smoking, diabetes, AF, family history, SBP, TC/HDL and current BP-lowering, lipid-lowering and antithrombotic treatment) and, for type 2 diabetes, the PREDICT diabetes equation (HbA1c, eGFR, ACR, BMI, diabetes duration and glucose-lowering treatment). Risk < 5%, 5–15% and ≥ 15% guide management as in the 2018 NZ consensus statement.

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Demographics

Age

years

30–79 years (derived 30–74)

Lipids & blood pressure

Total cholesterol

mmol/L

HDL cholesterol

mmol/L

Systolic BP

mmHg

Ethnicity & deprivation

NZDep quintile

NZ Index of Deprivation by address; outside New Zealand leave the middle quintile (3).

Risk factors & treatment

Tap all that apply

Clinically high risk

Already > 15%: no equation needed

eGFR

mL/min/1.73m²

< 30 is clinically high risk

PREDICT-1° · 5-year CVD

Enter age, cholesterol and systolic BP.

References

Pylypchuk R, Wells S, Kerr A, et al. Cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in 400 000 primary care patients in New Zealand: a derivation and validation study. Lancet 2018;391:1897-1907.
Pylypchuk R, Wells S, Kerr A, et al. Cardiovascular risk prediction in type 2 diabetes before and after widespread screening: a derivation and validation study. Lancet 2021;397:2264-2274.
Ministry of Health. Cardiovascular disease risk assessment and management for primary care. Wellington: Ministry of Health; 2018.